Lovion LIFECYCLE

Aging Model for Evaluations

Overview

Lovion RATING enhances Lovion RATING and Lovion RANKING using long-term simulations. These long-term simulations are based on asset groups specified in Lovion RATING, specific aging models and damage functions. Predefined strategy types that meet individual asset management objectives provide the basis for calculating individual replacement procedures.

Data Management

In Lovion LIFECYCLE, data from different sources is combined to calculate long-term simulations transparently and comprehensively. This includes technical asset information as well as business data such as costs and depreciation. Users have central access to specific technical information and business requirements for asset groups. Associated damage data and asset conditions provide an extensive overview with additional data sources relevant for forecasts.

Asset Groups

In Lovion Asset Management, assets are divided into common asset groups such as pipeline sections and transformers. A further differentiation is made by defining asset groups, such as line sections grouped according to their material, for example steel, PVC or PE and when they were manufactured. Asset groups defined in Lovion RATING are automatically transferred to Lovion LIFECYCLE. It is also possible to define new asset groups. This flexibility allows new specifications to be taken into account, for example, equipment that is not installed yet. This is helpful for possible replacement scenarios.

Versions

Multiple parameter configurations can be saved for asset groups. Each version has their own name and is stored and managed in Lovion LIFECYCLE. As a result, sensitivity analyses can be carried out by comparing different versions. Practical examples include defining different aging models as well as damage functions to calculate best-case, average-case, and worst-case scenarios.

Overhaul Matrix

The overhaul matrix plays a major role in calculating strategy simulations. In the overhaul matrix, users specify which type of assets or material should be used when replacing one or more asset groups. The overhaul matrix is based on existing or new asset groups including their specific technical and business characteristics. This feature extends the strategy simulation with additional data regarding the evolution of grids and plants during the planning and forecasting period.

Overviews

Lovion LIFECYCLE offers users a central overview of specific settings and transparently displays configured equipment groups and different paramater versions. Furthermore, interactive diagrams show comparison results between different parameters in aging models, asset lifespan and damage functions. Further evaluations can be carried out after exporting the data.

Statistics

Output data can be evaluated and visualized quickly and transparently through an integrated module in Lovion LIFECYCLE. The results are displayed in an interactive menu based on practical, pre-defined queries. The results are presented in clear diagrams and lists. All settings are made with a single mouse click, as are exports to standard Office formats.

Damage Functions

The module for calculating the future deterioration of assets in Lovion RATING AGING is based on historical deterioration data. If this data is not available, it is possible to derive deterioration functions based on industry standards or scientific publications. The deterioration function can be subdivided into three phases to provide a differentiated view of different deterioration phases. A separate function graph can be defined for each phase.. If this data is not available, it is possible to derive deterioration functions based on industry standards or scientific publications. The deterioration function can be subdivided into three phases to provide a differentiated view of different deterioration phases. A separate function graph can be defined for each phase.

Strategy Simulations

Core functions of Lovion LIFECYCLE include strategy simulations for asset groups and different parameter versions. Six basic strategy types are available to map different scenarios. Specific parameters can be applied for each strategy type and allow individual calculations. Below are some of the strategy types:

  • Aging Strategy: Based on the lifespan specifications of the aging model using a predefined replacement program with or without budget specifications.
  • Target Value Strategy: Target values for the following four metrics, number of damages, deterioration ratio, age, age index.
  • Risk budget strategy: Lovion RATING’s risk assessment is used for this type of strategy.
  • FOpt strategy: Cost-optimized renewal (CAPEX/OPEX optimization)
  • Strategy Scenario: Targets for up to four metrics simultaneously.
  • Markov aging strategy: Condition-based strategy

For hierarchically structured asset groups, a combination of parent-child strategies can also be simulated.

Displayed Results

Each strategy simulation delivers a comprehensive set of technical and business key figures. These results are neatly presented in central dialogs in Lovion LIFECYCLE with interactive selection lists and filters. All strategy types are presented identically. This not only provides a better overview, but also enables a quick and transparent strategy comparison. Results can also be exported as diagrams or tables from a central location.

Strategy Comparisons

Each strategy simulation provides comprehensive forecasting results for overhauls, i.e. replacing assets, their quality as well as cost dynamics including inflation and discount rates (present value analysis). It is possible to compare results of two or more strategy simulations in Lovion LIFECYCLE. Furthermore, diagrams and tables are displayed and can be used for comparisons. They can also be exported to other programs using export functions.

Integration with Asset Evaluations

Strategy simulations in Lovion LIFECYCLE always take into account asset groups and their version of parameters. Each individual asset is always linked to the priority list from Lovion RANKING. An important key figure in all strategy simulations is the overhaul year, which is used to calculate asset replacements based on the strategy simulation. This overhaul year is calculated for each asset. Once the user has decided on a strategy, the calculated overhaul year can be automatically transferred to the asset database in Lovion RATING. This consistent integration makes it possible to derive specific measures from the long-term prognosis in the process modules Lovion PROJECT and Lovion INVEST. In addition, projects planned for grid renewals and that have a specific implementation year in Lovion PROJECT can be taken into account in strategy simulations.

Markov Aging Strategy

In Lovion LIFECYCLE, quality-based strategy simulations can be created using Markov aging models. An interactive wizard supports the model configuration based on individual quality classifications. With the help of extensive validation functions, users can validate the model against available data sources. The prognosis function calculates how asset conditions develop over a certain timeframe. The classification results of asset conditions determine the remaining operational lifespan for each asset. If required, these values are automatically transferred to the Lovion RATING database. An advanced strategy simulation can also be created based on the devised Markov models and with the help of specifications for replacement programs and budgets.

Reports and Presentations

Lovion LIFECYCLE delivers comprehensive results for asset groups, statistics and strategy simulations. An integrated function module creates automated exports of project results in Excel and PowerPoint files. Reports and presentations are automatically generated using templates with configurable settings. These saved settings enable quick and structured exports suited to the user’s requirements.

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